Insights from High Usage-Rate Superstars
Implementing usage rate as a metric for championship potential among the four highest-usage players in NBA history.
Originally published: Krause Analytics
The idea of a ball-dominant superstar is a controversial and divisive topic when discussing the modern NBA. Any basketball fan several drinks in during a Rockets playoff game this past decade would have told you that relying so much on James Harden put a hard ceiling on the Rockets as championship contenders. A quick look into some of the advanced statistics tells a completely different story. From 2012 until just before the now-infamous trade that made Harden a Brooklyn Net, all the Beard did was post a .613 true-shooting percentage, average a 26.7 player efficiency rating (placing him 5th all-time in PER if you exclude his Oklahoma City years), and lead two vastly different iterations of the Rockets to within a series win of the NBA Finals. The natural question for teams led by such heliocentric offensive players emerges: how do we evaluate the impact of heavy usage on championship potential?
As we explore this list of the 4 highest single-season usage rate players in NBA history, we must first agree on a baseline commonality among these players: greatness. You don't get to have a high usage rate without being singularly dominant at your position. It takes a more thorough case-by-case study to see what makes each of these stars unique yet flawed, and the extent to which their respective skillsets contribute to championship DNA.
Russell Westbrook
(41.65%, 2016-2017: MVP, All-Star Starter, All-NBA 1st Team)
Team Playoffs Result: L 1st Round, 1-4
Russ has staked his claim as the most athletically gifted point guard in NBA history, becoming the first player since Oscar Robertson to average a triple double during an unforgettable MVP campaign in the ‘16-’17 season. With numerous All-Star appearances and All-NBA selections, deep playoff runs alongside Kevin Durant with what should have been a dynastic Oklahoma City team, and eye-popping statistical output, Westbrook has established himself as one of the all-time great point guards. It’s no coincidence that he occupies two spots in the usage rate top-5. Unfortunately, there hasn’t been a single season in which a Westbrook team without KD has advanced past the second round of the playoffs; as a matter of fact, the only time Russ even reached the second round was with Harden's Rockets during the 2020 COVID-bubble playoffs.
From watching Westbrook as a key cog in offenses over the years, it is apparent from the eye-test alone that he has the most success operating in transition. This way, he can use his uber-athleticism to create havoc at the rim and get his teammates involved in the natural flow of the game. Westbrook in a halfcourt offense is a different story. While he still finds a fair amount of success attacking downhill, his lack of a reliable outside shot often leaves his teams pressed for spacing. His midrange game has abandoned him.
This season, Russ is shooting an abysmal 37.5% from the field on shot attempts from 8-16 feet. Since his MVP season, he has not eclipsed >40% from midrange attempts yet continues to shoot them at a high clip. Russ's inefficiency reared its ugly head during his one-man army OKC years. Fans and media didn't chastise him nearly as much back then, as Westbrook never played with truly elite floor spacers; Paul George had a spectacular 2018-2019 season despite a debatably awkward fit with Russ, but a lot of his best work was creating off the dribble. Complementary pieces like Alex Abrines and Doug McDermott were too streaky and not productive enough to be considered strong supporting cast players a la the J.J. Redicks of the world.
With the Wizards in the 2020-2021 season, however, Russ bounced back after an atrocious start to the season to give us a glimmer of what an ideal Westbrook-led offense looks like. In his second-half comeback from a quadriceps injury, he became a brilliant facilitator for a roster that had a variety of unique scoring threats. His playmaking and rebounding unlocked transition opportunities for another competent primary creator in Bradley Beal and a more conventional spot-up shooter in Davis Bertans. While the Wizards didn't make any noise in the playoffs, the personnel on that team helped shed some light on Westbrook’s strengths as a basketball player.
Now playing with LeBron James and Anthony Davis in his hometown, Russ has struggled mightily to impart his positive attributes on this roster. This is one of the few times in his basketball career where he isn't the primary decision maker and ball handler, as LBJ generally assumes those duties on every roster he ever plays on. Without a defined offensive occupation, Russ is a shell of himself by very intentional design.
We may never see the optimized version of this current Lakers team, but I know for certain that having a point guard accustomed to getting players involved in a fast-paced, high octane offensive system who is now essentially being asked to serve as a role player in a half-court heavy offense is not the ideal way to maximize the Lakers’ championship window.
James Harden
(40.47%, 2018-2019; MVP Runner-Up, All-Star Starter, All-NBA 1st Team)
Team Playoffs Result: W 1st Round (4-1), L 2nd Round (2-4)
I’ve talked about Harden a little already, but to me he’s the most interesting guy on this list. From the time he was traded to Houston pundits and fans alike have eviscerated Harden’s isolation game. Take a closer look at some of Houston’s more successful Harden-led rosters, though, and you can see how his game led to one of the most productive offenses this league has ever seen. The 2017-2019 Rockets were arguably the second best team in the league in that span, using Harden’s strengths in a diverse range of scenarios to generate scoring opportunities.
Utilized in more isolation sets than many teams' star players, Harden was a savant at using the NBA’s two most efficient ways to score: free throws and three pointers. He took the step-back 3 to new heights while making us all question what a travel was. When isolation opportunities broke down, Harden had a fantastic variety of options on offense thanks to Mike D’Antoni’s supercharged system. Most of his drives to the basket led to wide open perimeter shots for marksmen such as PJ Tucker, Eric Gordon and Trevor Ariza; if kick-outs weren’t materializing, Harden was crafty enough to draw bigger interior defenders and throw pinpoint lobs to a rolling Clint Capela.
With all this raving about Harden’s offensive genius, why the criticism? Harden maintained his scoring average, assist numbers, and free throw rate in the playoffs during his tenure with the Rockets, but his dip in three point percentage became a problem.
Regular season ('12-'13 to '19-'20): 36.2%3P
Playoffs ('13-'20): 32.4%3P
In the playoffs, defensive rotations tighten up and scoring chances become more difficult. The anti-Rockets contingent will point to game 7 against the Warriors in the 2018 Western Conference Finals as the prime example of James Harden’s limitations as a championship player. The Rockets missed 27 consecutive 3s in that game. As the team’s primary offensive initiator and facilitator, Harden falls on the burden of generating more drives to the basket to draw contact and get back some rhythm at the free throw line.
The Rockets ran into historic Golden State teams three times, and each iteration of those Warriors teams ultimately ended up in the finals ('15, '18, '19). Was Harden the main reason his team could never take that ultimate step and play for a championship? No. Was Harden’s reduced efficiency from three point range a factor in the Rockets often failing to meet expectations? Certainly. When one player is the focal point of an offense, the burden to create for not only himself but teammates as well increases significantly when there isn’t a true second star to rely on; this makes Chris Paul’s injury before game 6 in the 2018 series against the Warriors even more excruciating for Rockets fans in hindsight.
We will see how Harden responds in Philadelphia after a short-lived tenure as a member of the Nets. With a legitimate superstar alongside him in current MVP favorite Joel Embiid, Harden will have to defer more often than he has been used to doing. Regarding the upcoming commentary on Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan, I haven’t even mentioned individual defense yet. Kobe and Jordan have 21 All-Defense team appearances combined. Harden and Westbrook? 0. Even among these superstars, there are levels.
Kobe Bryant
(38.74%, 2005-2006; 4th in MVP Voting, All-Star Starter, All-NBA 1st Team, All-Defensive 1st Team)
Team Playoff Result: L 1st Round (3-4)
Looking at Kobe’s 2005-2006 season, some ridiculous numbers emerge. 81 points against the Raptors. 50 points in Game 6 against the Suns in the first round of the playoffs. All-Defensive 1st team. Bryant was genuinely one of the most incredible competitors to ever play sports, and it still feels strange to write about him in past tense. His willingness to take, make, and accept blame for late-game shots was his defining characteristic. No one embraced clutch moments like Bryant.
Forever a student of the game, he seemingly always found ways to hurt opposing defenses by picking his spots unlike few the game has seen. No shot was a bad shot for Kobe, which was also a point of criticism among fans and media when discussing his individual performances. Kobe could only do so much given the roster constructs of the mid-2000s Lakers. This often involved taking contested fadeaway jumpers over multiple defenders, forcing drives to the basket, and letting the shot clock wind down to <5 seconds before initiating any offensive action.
It was evident what Kobe’s ideal basketball situation was after watching him play with Shaq and Pau Gasol in two different eras: a pairing with a cerebral yet mobile big man that opened up low-post scoring opportunities out of the pick and roll. All Kobe craved during his years carrying the Lakers to low seeds and early playoff exits was someone to take some offensive burden off of him, and while the Lakers never managed to sign the perfect perimeter player to pair alongside him, they succeeded in finding centers to make the game flow a little more smoothly for him.
Michael Jordan
(38.29%, 1986-1987; MVP Runner-Up, All-Star Starter, All-NBA 1st Team)
Team Playoff Result: L 1st Round (0-3)
As the model for a lot of what Kobe aimed to develop and build on, MJ became the gold standard over the course of his illustrious career for how to single-handedly dominate all four quarters of an NBA game. Even with abysmal rosters in his first few years in the league, Jordan managed to put up earth-bending all-around performances to keep his Bulls squad competitive. In the ‘86-’87 season, Jordan averaged 37 points per game while only attempting 0.8 threes per game. He had every trick in basketball’s offensive arsenal, and eventually developed into a fantastic individual defender.
Contrary to Kobe, Jordan’s individual greatness only began to translate to wins and postseason success once the Bulls drafted a perimeter stud: Scottie Pippen. This wasn’t some bruising, interior presence that dominated opposing teams in the paint. Pippen shouldered critical playmaking, defensive, and scoring roles that were previously unfilled. With a superpower sidekick who could still effectively control the pace of the game when he was having off nights, Jordan’s greatness turned into Chicago Bulls greatness. The Bulls famously embarked on what became one of the league’s most memorable dynasties that transcended into basketball immortality.
These four players have given us incredible moments and memories throughout the years. High usage rate is not a perfect metric by any means, but it should give GM’s and coaches a lot of thinking to do regarding roster building and how to inch closer towards increasing a team's odds of winning the title.